Former SGF rates potential alliance at “about 70%” chance of victory, gives Tinubu 50% and predicts defeat for Atiku amid lingering rift with ADC

Former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, has thrown his weight behind a possible alliance between Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, saying a joint presidential ticket would significantly boost their chances in the 2027 election.

In an interview aired on Symfoni TV on Saturday, Lawal argued that both politicians would struggle if they contested separately but could become a formidable force if they teamed up. By his estimation, an Obi–Kwankwaso pairing could command “close to 70 per cent” chance of victory.

“Peter Obi will try to be fair to everybody. He will try to do what is right,” Lawal said. “Obi and Kwankwaso — take note — I’m pairing them. Individually, it will be a disaster, but together, they are strong.”

He contrasted this with his projections for other leading figures, giving President Bola Tinubu a 50 per cent chance while dismissing the prospects of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar entirely.

“On my own scale, I’ll give them close to 70 per cent. Bola, 50. Atiku, zero,” he stated bluntly.

Lawal was even more direct when speaking about Atiku’s chances, insisting the former vice-president would not win the next presidential race. “Definitely, Atiku will lose. He will, and I pray he loses,” he added.

His comments come against the backdrop of his recent fallout with Atiku following his resignation from the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Lawal has repeatedly alleged that the party’s presidential primary, which produced Atiku as its candidate, was riddled with irregularities—claims the ADC has yet to formally acknowledge.

The remarks are likely to stir fresh debate within opposition circles, where discussions about coalitions and strategic alliances ahead of 2027 are already gaining momentum.